Navigating trade in 2026: 5 strategic shifts in business decisions

World Economic Forum (Jan 15, 2026) "Navigating trade in 2026: 5 strategic shifts in business decisions" identifies five reorientations under geopolitical fragmentation: supply-chain restructuring through decentralised production, supplier diversification and modular manufacturing for resilience; capital-expenditure reallocation by geography (overall capex steady, geographic distribution shifting dramatically toward agility, asset readiness and regional resilience); M&A reimagined as a strategic tool for resilience, diversification and capability-building rather than scale alone; ERM transformation away from probability-based models toward scenario planning focused on disruption impact; and integration of geopolitical risk into strategy via heat maps, AI-powered simulations and "what-if" analyses as standing board items. Direct read-out for SEA mid-market boards in tariff and corridor flux.