The Art, Science, and Technology of Geopolitical Scenario Planning

A McKinsey survey of C-suite leaders found that fewer than one-third rate their geopolitical risk management as mature, and only 5 percent have run simulations to stress-test their exposure—yet 53 percent say scenario planning and real-time intelligence modeling would significantly strengthen resilience. The article provides a structured playbook covering horizon scanning, scenario development, contingency planning, tabletop exercises, and AI-enabled foresight tools, with explicit guidance on focusing scenario work on risk appetite rather than probability assignment. For SEA boards operating across volatile trade corridors, this is a directly actionable framework for upgrading their strategic decision rehearsal process.