When Scenario Planning Fails

Harvard Business Review (Apr 21, 2023) by Kalle Heikkinen, William Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen interviews Nordic executives who lived through Covid-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine on their doorstep. Their conclusion is not to abandon "base case / best case / worst case" scenarios but to add four adaptations: stretch the types of scenarios under consideration; use vulnerabilities as a prism rather than probabilities; build strong action guidelines and internal communication; and embed crisis management into the organisational structure. For SEA mid-market boards exposed to Taiwan-Strait, Mekong-river and tariff-shock scenarios, the Nordic adaptation is directly transferable.